Best of LinkedIn: SuperReturn International 2026

00:00:00: provided by Thomas Allgaier and Frennus based on the most relevant LinkedIn posts about Super Return International, twenty-twenty six.

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00:00:17: right.

00:00:17: so welcome to The Deep Dive everyone.

00:00:19: yeah thanks for joining us.

00:00:20: I want you imagine just for second sitting at room with

00:00:24: fifty

00:00:25: trillion dollars purchasing power.

00:00:27: That is, I mean that's just a mind-boggling amount of money.

00:00:30: It is right but the crazy part is The prevailing mood in this room isn't excitement.

00:00:34: it's well its exhaustion.

00:00:36: Yeah totally.

00:00:37: Today we're taking you inside Superreturn.

00:00:39: twenty twenty six In Berlin And were looking at an industry built on buying Scaling and selling That has suddenly realized Its sitting On A mountain Of assets it basically Can't get rid of.

00:00:49: Exactly i mean it Is a staggering concentration of influence.

00:00:53: We are Looking At Roughly uh Six thousand Private capital decision makers gathered in one space, including over two thousand limited partners and three thousand general partners.

00:01:04: And Terrence Gaulman and Alexander Sienko reported from the floor that this group represents like he said about fifty trillion in assets under management.

00:01:12: That's

00:01:12: just the scale of.

00:01:13: that is wild!

00:01:15: Right, so our focus for you today is translating that unprecedented concentration of capital into actionable strategy like what does it mean for you?

00:01:23: Whether your an M&A private equity venture capital or consulting?

00:01:27: we want to examine what happens to the mechanics of this industry when story telling stops and then market demands actual proof.

00:01:35: Yeah...and I think Um, persistent unavoidable conversation on the floor over there.

00:01:42: Oh absolutely!

00:01:42: It wasn't about the next big disruptive tech was it?

00:01:45: No not at all...it was about fundamental math of the asset class specifically DPI distributed to paid-in capital.

00:01:52: Right, DPI because for the last decade GPs have basically walked into pitch meetings armed with these sky high IRRs right pointing to internal marks and theoretical valuations.

00:02:02: Yeah

00:02:02: look at our paper returns.

00:02:04: kind of thing

00:02:04: Exactly.

00:02:05: but The Mood in Berlin really suggested that LPs are.

00:02:09: well they're refusing to eat paper returns anymore.

00:02:11: yeah Enrico Reiki captured this sentiment on the ground pretty bluntly.

00:02:14: he literally said dpi is the new IRR.

00:02:18: Wow DPI is the new IRR.

00:02:20: Yeah, and look this isn't just some temporary shift in LP preferences right?

00:02:25: It's a

00:02:25: structural reaction to a historic liquidity logjam

00:02:29: rights.

00:02:30: Arsene Klokovkin shared Some data pointing out that private equity has returned under fifteen percent of net asset value for four consecutive years.

00:02:39: Okay Let's just pause on that for a second because to put that in perspective For you listening if you are an LP The vast majority your capital has been locked into holding patterned for half a decade

00:02:48: yeah Five years with

00:02:49: very little cash flowing back to you.

00:02:51: To actually fund your next allocation cycle

00:02:53: exactly.

00:02:53: it's totally stuck.

00:02:55: and Venera man Quantified that bottleneck with a number that should give literally everyone pause.

00:03:01: Oh, yeah the thirty three thousand number.

00:03:03: right there are roughly Thirty-three thousand unsold portfolio companies sitting on the books right now.

00:03:08: thirty-three Thousand I mean.

00:03:10: when you understand The mechanics of how the bid ask spread widened over the last few years You really see why.

00:03:16: LPs or just fatigued.

00:03:18: Yeah, you have GPs anchored to these like twenty-twenty one valuations because nobody wants To take a markdown.

00:03:24: obviously

00:03:24: right they don't want to admit the value went down

00:03:26: exactly.

00:03:27: and on The flip side You have buyers flat out refusing to pay those multiples in A higher interest rate environment.

00:03:34: so the results are just completely frozen market which

00:03:36: really forces our reckoning On how value is actually created right?

00:03:40: Oh totally Like

00:03:41: Steven Saunders noted that LPs Want receipts not stories.

00:03:44: I love that quote, receipts not stories.

00:03:47: It's

00:03:47: perfect and the critical mechanism here as Diana Vlasova pointed out is that the era of relying on cheap leverage in you know multiple expansion-that's over!

00:03:58: it's dead.

00:03:58: i mean...in the twenty tens?

00:04:00: You could buy a company for ten times earnings just hold onto it and sell it for fifteen times simply because the broader market went up

00:04:06: A rising tide hiding a lot operational sins basically

00:04:09: Exactly now If you want to sell an asset and generate that DPI, You have to prove actual bottom line operational execution.

00:04:18: Right?

00:04:19: I always look at this whole IRR versus DPI debate like um... Like over heated real estate market.

00:04:25: That's a good way of looking it.

00:04:26: Yeah!

00:04:27: Pointing your IRR right now is kind of bragging about the zestimate in house.

00:04:31: It feels great say oh my property doubled value on paper But if putted on the market literally no one bids on

00:04:38: it.

00:04:38: Nobody shows up for open house.

00:04:40: Exactly That paper wealth doesn't pay your bills.

00:04:44: LPs have pension obligations, right?

00:04:46: They can't pay retirees with a GP's internal valuation spreadsheet...

00:04:50: Absolutely cannot!

00:04:51: Yeah that is the practical reality driving the entire secondary market Right now.

00:04:56: because if traditional exits you know IPOs or strategic acquisitions If those are stalled for those thirty three thousand companies GPs have to find alternative levers To manufacture liquidity

00:05:07: Right, which brings us to the explosion of liquidity solutions.

00:05:11: Emi Cicchini highlighted how GP-led secondaries and continuation funds have like moved from The Fringe To The Absolute Center Of The Strategy.

00:05:19: Now Yeah

00:05:19: there are everywhere.

00:05:21: But I've gotta say i'm genuinely skeptical about the underlying mechanics here.

00:05:24: Oh really?

00:05:24: How come?

00:05:25: Well LPs Are Screaming For Liquidity And The Industry's Response Is To Create Continuation Vehicles.

00:05:33: Are these genuinely solving the exit problem?

00:05:35: or are we looking at a highly sophisticated like fifty trillion dollar shell game?

00:05:40: Shell Game, wow.

00:05:41: Yeah where GP basically moves an asset from their fund three to there newly created continuation fun charges and new set of fees And then claims they've generated liquidity

00:05:52: look I hear that skepticism.

00:05:53: often it's a massive point of friction for LPs but The math does actually support the mechanism when it's used correctly.

00:06:00: Okay,

00:06:01: assuming its use correct.

00:06:02: right

00:06:02: if a GP holds high performing high conviction asset forcing assail into a depressed M&A market just to satisfy an arbitrary timeline that destroys value for the LP That's

00:06:13: fair.

00:06:13: you don't want to fire sale.

00:06:15: exactly.

00:06:16: so well structured continuation fund provides an option.

00:06:19: LPs who desperately need cash can take the liquidity and get out while LPs who want to ride the upside can roll their equity over.

00:06:28: Right,

00:06:28: so it's a tool for alignment.

00:06:30: Provided that GP isn't just using into high-to-zombie asset of course...

00:06:33: Which definitely happens!

00:06:34: Oh

00:06:35: sure but this year volume of capital flowing here is just undeniable.

00:06:39: Joe Colgan Bevan projected they credit secondaries alone could hit eighty billion dollars by twenty thirty

00:06:45: billion.

00:06:46: Wow, which naturally brings us to the credit side

00:07:08: of

00:07:13: Right.

00:07:14: But this dispersion idea means the gap between top quartile managers and bottom quartile manager is widening dramatically.

00:07:22: Yes, Janice Seekins actually issued a direct warning to the attendees.

00:07:28: he said underwriting quality matters significantly more than the overarching growth story right now.

00:07:34: And I'm really curious how that dispersion actually plays out in these portfolios like when The Tide Goes Out.

00:07:39: What exposes a bad underwriter?

00:07:43: deep concerns around retail exposure, redemptions and specifically software linked credit risk.

00:07:49: Oh the software loans?

00:07:50: Yeah if you let money to a sauce company based on some really aggressive recurring revenue multiple...and that multiple suddenly compresses

00:07:58: your loan-to-value ratio looks very very precarious

00:08:01: exactly!

00:08:02: And that is precisely the mechanism driving all this anxiety right.

00:08:05: it forces us to look really closely at the underlying sectors

00:08:11: because since GPs can't just rely on financial engineering anymore and leverage is crazy expensive, they are banking heavily on software in AI.

00:08:20: Right!

00:08:20: They need those sectors to drive the operational efficiency required to justify these high valuations.

00:08:25: But

00:08:25: both sectors got a pretty severe reality check in Berlin...

00:08:28: ...they really did.

00:08:30: The Software Multiple's data is sobering.

00:08:32: honestly Alexander Smith cited numbers from CNBC showing that software multiples fell nine percent in the US and four percent in Europe, just the first quarter.

00:08:41: Just Q-one?

00:08:42: That's huge!

00:08:43: It is...and this ignited a massive debate on the floor about whether we are experiencing

00:08:50: the spokolips.

00:08:50: Yeah, Orlando Bravo made headlines by declaring that this SAS apocalypse is over but Pierce Casey openly questioned that optimism

00:08:57: because the tension here stems from a fundamental shift in what investors actually value now.

00:09:01: right

00:09:02: for years simply having software exposure was enough.

00:09:05: like recurring revenue models were viewed as entirely bulletproof.

00:09:08: just buy sauce and you're good

00:09:09: exactly.

00:09:10: But now the diligence process is really interrogating software quality.

00:09:14: Like, Is the product actually sticky?

00:09:17: Or is it just a nice to have tool that a CFO's going to cut to save margins?

00:09:21: right?

00:09:21: do they have a defensible AI enabled infrastructure?

00:09:25: or is their core feature about to be completely commoditized by some open source model

00:09:29: which perfectly pitted sus to the conversation because I was inescapable at super return?

00:09:35: Oh i'm sure It wasn't every single pitch deck

00:09:37: but The tone Was Really Different Than A year ago.

00:09:40: Dr.

00:09:40: Stefan Samble noted that the industry has officially moved past the honeymoon phase of experimentation, now they are demanding actual economics.

00:09:49: Right.

00:09:49: The question isn't whether AI is like cool or flashy.

00:09:53: It's whether it creates a measurable EBITDA impact for the portfolio company

00:09:58: And the data on that front is surprisingly bleak.

00:10:00: Yeah

00:10:01: this was crazy to me.

00:10:02: Thomas Dobmeier highlighted his statistic That should honestly reframe how every GP approaches tech integration.

00:10:09: Roughly, ninety-four percent of PE portfolio companies are still seeing only marginal gains from AI.

00:10:14: I have to just pause on that.

00:10:15: Ninety four percent are seeing marginal gains.

00:10:18: Yeah,

00:10:18: ninety four percent.

00:10:19: In an environment where every single pitch deck claims AIs revolutionizing their operations How is the actual yield that

00:10:26: low?

00:10:26: Well Emily Cook diagnosed a friction point perfectly.

00:10:29: She reminded The Room.

00:10:30: about seventy percent of Ai's real value doesn't actually come through models themselves.

00:10:34: Oh

00:10:34: right

00:10:34: It comes people workflows and upscaling.

00:10:37: Yeah, because technology is easy to buy right?

00:10:40: But behavioral change is incredibly difficult to manage.

00:10:44: GPs are finally realizing that AI Is not just some plug-and play license you install To magically expand your margins.

00:10:50: No none at all.

00:10:51: I always think of enterprise AI integration like Buying a state-of the art hyper advanced robotic forklift For really old legacy warehouse.

00:11:02: Okay i like where this going

00:11:03: Right.

00:11:03: So the forklift itself is a marvel of engineering, but it's completely useless and maybe even massive hazard if you don't fundamentally reorganize the warehouse.

00:11:13: Yeah she was going to crash into things.

00:11:15: Exactly!

00:11:15: You have to widen the aisles reinforce flooring change how inventory is barcode scanned And most importantly retrain work force that has been doing thing manually for twenty years.

00:11:25: The friction isn't technology?

00:11:27: No The friction is tearing down and rebuilding the entire operational workflow to accommodate that technology.

00:11:33: And doing that requires upfront capital, which hurts your short-term margins...

00:11:37: Which creates a direct conflict with an LP base that's demanding immediate DPI.

00:11:43: That structural conflict Is at the absolute heart of current operational reset.

00:11:49: LPs are scrutinizing GPs on this exact timeline.

00:11:53: They want to know if the AI integration is reducing customer acquisition costs or improving retention today.

00:11:59: Not in five years.

00:12:00: Right, AI has to function as a core operating capability not just some glossy marketing layer To help raise the next fund.

00:12:07: and that leads to the next big theme.

00:12:09: because if The bar for generating returns requires fundamentally rewriting of portfolio companies operational DNA Raising capital to execute that strategy must be brutally difficult.

00:12:20: Oh

00:12:20: brutally.

00:12:20: And the sources from super return confirm a sharply bifurcated fundraising environment.

00:12:25: global geopolitics is no longer Just a backdrop.

00:12:27: you know It is actively dictating where the capital flows.

00:12:30: Yeah, for generalist mid-market funds.

00:12:32: The environment is incredibly unforgiving right now.

00:12:35: if you walk into an LP meeting without a highly specific totally defensible edge You leave empty handed

00:12:40: yeah?

00:12:40: You're not getting a check

00:12:41: but specialist funds are experiencing A very different reality.

00:12:47: Dr.. Lucas Klipper pointed out that Gaius Capital reached around eighty percent of its hard cap For their debut fund within just twelve months.

00:12:54: Eighty percent in a year for D.D Fund.

00:12:56: Right capital's available.

00:12:58: But conviction requires differentiation.

00:13:00: And Thomas Muccia and Borclara Mendez-McConan articulated a really profound shift in how that differentiation is defined, they said.

00:13:08: geopolitics are no longer risk factor relegated to the appendix of a pitch deck.

00:13:13: Geopolitics as investment thesis?

00:13:15: Yes!

00:13:16: We're literally watching de-globalization transition from an academic theory into hard capital allocation.

00:13:22: It's happening real time.

00:13:24: Irina Potobnea observed this physical migration.

00:13:28: It is moving away from asset-like software multiples and pouring into heavy physical resilience, things like defense tech to method manufacturing critical minerals in power grids.

00:13:38: And this transition is just fascinating.

00:13:39: form a structural standpoint.

00:13:41: I mean think about the scene outside the venue.

00:13:43: in Berlin.

00:13:43: there were protests concerning how pension funds and public welfare money are flowing into capital markets.

00:13:49: But then inside the venue, the discussion focused heavily on how private capital is stepping into finance defense tech energy grids and NATO initiatives.

00:13:58: And just to be clear for you listening we're not taking any stance in politics here.

00:14:03: We want to impartially report what was discussed.

00:14:05: Absolutely!

00:14:06: We are looking at raw mechanics.

00:14:07: Exactly.

00:14:08: The mechanics are compelling.

00:14:10: Private capital is being pulled into sectors that have historically been the exclusive domain of public policy and national security

00:14:17: Which forces a really difficult question about the capabilities of the current GP talent

00:14:22: pool.

00:14:22: I totally agree because The underwriting math Is completely different.

00:14:25: Oh, hundred percent

00:14:26: If A private equity firm has spent the last fifteen years Mastering...the B to B sauce playbook, optimizing custom requisition costs, analyzing churn, modeling recurring revenue from thousands of clients.

00:14:40: How do they pivot to underwriting a defense contractor?

00:14:43: It's a completely different world.

00:14:45: Defense tech relies on a monopsony—a single buyer in the form

00:14:54: agonizingly slow procurement cycles, massive regulatory hurdles?

00:14:58: Does the traditional PE talent pool actually possess the operational capability to manage national security

00:15:06: assets?".

00:15:07: That might be a defining question for next decade of capital allocation.

00:15:10: And it requires us to look at the human reality of who is sitting at the decision-making table.

00:15:15: A

00:15:15: human element, yeah

00:15:16: Because when the industry pivots two physical grids and national resilience You need cognitive diversity To evaluate those entirely new risks.

00:15:24: Right

00:15:25: But Julia Frey highlighted a persistent gap here.

00:15:29: She noted that roughly only five percent Of the attendees in The Room At Superreturn were women.

00:15:33: Five percent.

00:15:34: That was stark metric.

00:15:35: Her core

00:15:36: question Was blunt who actually holds the power to allocate capital.

00:15:39: Yeah, especially when contrasted with the high-profile women's private equity event which Fay Margo noted featured Malala Yusufsai.

00:15:47: The dialogue there pushed way past just symbolic representation.

00:15:51: It focused on the actual mechanics of getting women into investment committees and leadership roles where capital deployment is finalized.

00:15:59: The industry talks a big game about diversity but execution power remains heavily concentrated.

00:16:07: The way that power organizes itself, however is evolving rapidly.

00:16:11: We saw this in how super return function not just as a networking event but has an active operating platform for the industry.

00:16:18: Yeah!

00:16:18: This was really cool to see...the demand for efficiency we've talked about from DPI to AI workflows.

00:16:23: it extended directly to mechanics of the conference.

00:16:26: Yeah, the structural changes to deal-making were striking.

00:16:29: It wasn't just about swapping business cards in crowded hallways or sitting through theoretical panels.

00:16:34: Right!

00:16:35: Tim Jadzims and Mario Palladini highlighted the introduction of Tiny Knee Space...

00:16:40: The meeting pods right?

00:16:41: Exactly there were around sixty modular meeting pods installed essentially turning the event floor into a practical back-to-back deal flow engine.

00:16:50: it was physical infrastructure designed specifically for transactional efficiency

00:16:54: And even the informal networking adapted to this efficiency mandate.

00:16:59: Like instead of traditional evening cocktail hours where everyone just stands around drinking, ex-bionic max allocation and redial pine actually organized a morning run in the tear garden.

00:17:09: Swapping coffee for cardio.

00:17:10: I love that!

00:17:11: Over seventy attendees joined.

00:17:14: relationship building is becoming highly targeted and functional.

00:17:17: So bringing it all together, every data point we've explored today points to an industry shedding its excess.

00:17:23: Whether it's LPs demanding hard cash instead of paper returns the market-demanding proofs of AI actual economic impact or attendees optimizing how six thousand people negotiate in Berlin

00:17:34: The tolerance for fluff has basically evaporated

00:17:37: Completely...the narrative cycle is over.

00:17:39: Yeah.

00:17:40: The managers who survive this reset will be the ones to combine rigorous operational capability with measurable, resilient portfolio impact.

00:17:47: Exactly and as you the listener process all these threads that demand for liquidity they reality check on tech integration...the migration of capital toward physical infrastructure.

00:17:57: it leaves you a really profound question regarding tech sovereignty.

00:18:00: Oh!

00:18:01: This is big one.

00:18:02: We've seen how fifty trillion dollars of private capital is increasingly being drafted to fund areas formerly dominated by the state like defense, energy grids and deep

00:18:13: tech.

00:18:15: So if private markets become the primary financial engine for national security in critical infrastructure.

00:18:21: who ultimately holds a strategic reigns?

00:18:25: the GPs deploying the capital, or the governments regulating them?

00:18:29: That is the question.

00:18:30: It's a dynamic that will completely reshape how risk is calculated.

00:18:34: The lines between private market returns and public interest are blurring fast

00:18:39: And navigating that intersection will require entirely new playbooks.

00:18:42: Absolutely If you enjoyed this episode New episodes drop every two weeks.

00:18:46: Also check out our other editions on Private Equity Strategy & Consulting Venture Capital and M&A.

00:18:52: Thanks so much for listening.

00:18:53: Yeah, thank you for joining us on this deep dive!

00:18:55: Remember to subscribe and we'll catch ya in the next one.