Best of LinkedIn: M&A Insights CW 07/ 08

00:00:00: Provided by Thomas Allgaier and Frennus, based on the most relevant posts on LinkedIn about M&A insights from CW.

00:00:06: seven-and-eight.

00:00:07: Frenness is a BDB market research company supporting M& A consultancies with The Market in competition perspective for example In commercial due diligence's.

00:00:17: And uh Just so we are all On the same page.

00:00:20: For this deep dive We're looking at very specific snapshot

00:00:24: Right!

00:00:25: The market From calendar weeks Seven and eight Of twenty-twenty six.

00:00:28: Yeah, and it really feels like we are in a bit of transition period right now doesn't

00:00:33: It does?

00:00:33: I mean We aren't that wild mania of twenty twenty one anymore?

00:00:36: Oh definitely not.

00:00:37: but we also aren't the deep freeze of twenty three either.

00:00:41: if you had to Put A label on The vibe for the listener Right Now What Would You Call?

00:00:45: It?

00:00:46: i call it strategic discipline

00:00:47: Strategic Discipline.

00:00:49: yeah

00:00:49: That is the exact phrase that keeps coming up In the data.

00:00:51: But market Is Awake You know, the checkbooks are open.

00:00:55: But they aren't just throwing money at anything with a pitch deck?

00:00:57: Exactly!

00:00:58: The money isn't just flying out of door It is highly calculated now

00:01:02: Which honestly it's probably much healthier place for industry to be

00:01:05: A hundred percent.

00:01:06: We saw Eric Kutcher share that McKinsey report recently and headline numbers were...

00:01:11: massive.

00:01:12: Oh yeah, the twenty-twenty five wrap up

00:01:13: right?

00:01:14: Twenty twenty-five deal activity in The Americas surged sixty four percent to two point nine trillion dollars.

00:01:21: It's a staggering figure it

00:01:22: is.

00:01:23: but Kutcher's Point wasn't just about.

00:01:24: the sheer volume was

00:01:26: no and that Is a crucial insight for us.

00:01:28: To start with kutcher is arguing That m&a has shifted from being this the cyclical tactic.

00:01:35: Something you just do when interest rates are low and you feel rich?

00:01:38: Right,

00:01:38: exactly it shifted from that to a permanent strategic tool.

00:01:42: Companies are finally realizing they just cannot innovate organically fast enough to survive.

00:01:47: They literally have to buy-to adapt!

00:01:49: Yes, so M&A is effectively the new R&D A

00:01:52: new R & D. I like that

00:01:53: and The momentum is very real right now.

00:01:55: Mitch Berlin was referencing the EY Parthenon deal barometer noting That USM&A Ended twenty twenty five on this massive upswing.

00:02:03: i think value Is up something Like sixty percent?

00:02:05: Sixty

00:02:05: percent yeah And that energy has carried Right into these first weeks of Twenty twenty six.

00:02:10: the engine is Definitely

00:02:11: warm.

00:02:12: Okay, so the engine is running.

00:02:14: To help you navigate this we have three clear clusters to work through on today's deep dive.

00:02:20: let's lay them out

00:02:21: first.

00:02:22: We are going to start with the market pulse.

00:02:25: So macro trends regional hotspots

00:02:28: exactly specifically looking at The DA CH region.

00:02:31: then we will get into the weeds of deals and portfolio moves.

00:02:35: Who was writing?

00:02:36: The billion dollar checks in why

00:02:38: right?

00:02:39: And finally, we will look at AI and tech which is fascinating because it's playing a double role right now.

00:02:44: It's the target in The Weapon!

00:02:45: Yes...it

00:02:46: IS THE THING EVERYONE WANTS TO BUY but IT'S ALSO THE TOOL THEY'RE USING TO DO THE BUYING.

00:02:50: Let's

00:02:51: start with the polls though.

00:02:53: The macro view feels surprisingly optimistic.

00:02:56: Marcus Wagner was referencing outlooks from Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley.

00:03:00: he used this phrase CONVERGENCE OF FORCES Which

00:03:02: usually sounds like the plot of disaster movie.

00:03:04: I know right?

00:03:05: But here I think he means it in a purely positive way.

00:03:08: He does, It is the convergence of three specific drivers.

00:03:11: First obviously The massive investment and AI.

00:03:14: Second A renewed appetite for cross-border deals.

00:03:18: but the third one Is probably most practical For the listener

00:03:21: The pressure on private equity to monetize

00:03:23: Exactly Limited partners The investors.

00:03:25: They want their money back

00:03:26: Because they have been sitting On these assets for long time now.

00:03:30: You cannot hold an asset forever.

00:03:32: So that monetization pressure is effectively a forced march to sell

00:03:36: which puts inventory on the market

00:03:38: and That fuels.

00:03:39: The deal flow

00:03:40: makes total sense, And it isn't just tech in finance.

00:03:42: seeing this action I was actually really surprised by the data from the consumer packaged goods sector

00:03:48: the CPG space.

00:03:49: Yeah Katrina Yavush flagged a fifty percent surge in global M&A value.

00:03:54: there CPG usually feels so sleepy.

00:03:57: Yeah, sleepy.

00:03:58: Reliable but sleepy?

00:03:59: Defensive is the polite term we use Right

00:04:01: defensive.

00:04:01: But Yavash points out that this surge Is not about just buying more of the same.

00:04:05: It's portfolio reshaping

00:04:07: Shedding the legacy stuff.

00:04:09: Exactly Big conglomerates are shedding those legacy assets The brands our grandparents bought That simply aren't growing anymore And they're doubling down on high growth areas.

00:04:20: Its

00:04:20: basically spring cleaning but On a billion dollar scale.

00:04:23: Thats

00:04:23: great way to put it.

00:04:24: Speaking of cleaning things up, let's talk about the regulatory environment because for a while there getting a big deal approved felt like pulling teeth.

00:04:32: Oh it was brutal!

00:04:33: Lydia Barron highlighted the Santander Webster merger which was a twelve point three billion dollar deal but she focused entirely on the timeline

00:04:42: and this is huge signal for the market right now.

00:04:45: She noted that regulatory gridlock is finally easing up.

00:04:48: The numbers are pretty striking.

00:04:50: They

00:04:50: really are.

00:04:51: The average approval time for bank marchers used to be one hundred and eighty-one days.

00:04:55: Half a year,

00:04:56: right?

00:04:56: And now it is dropping to around one hundred seventeen days!

00:05:00: That's basically two whole months of your life

00:05:02: back... It has two months reduced risk.

00:05:04: Deal fatigue is very real thing.

00:05:06: if you know that you aren't going stuck in regulatory purgatory You are much more likely sign the paper.

00:05:11: It removes layer uncertainty just kills deals

00:05:15: Exactly.

00:05:16: Let's zoom in geographically for a second.

00:05:18: We often get very U.S-centric on these deep dives, but there is a lot of movement in the Dach region right now.

00:05:25: Germany Austria Switzerland Yes

00:05:27: and Tuhan Erdemi had some numbers that frankly I did not expect at all.

00:05:32: The Dach Region Is Fascinating Right Now?

00:05:34: Erdemie Highlighted That In Twenty Twenty Five They Saw About Six Hundred Software Deals.

00:05:40: Six Hundred Yeah Worth Nearly Thirty Three Point Nine Billion Euros.

00:05:44: But you really have to look at where that money is going.

00:05:47: It's not the flashy consumer stuff.

00:05:48: No, it is not social media apps...it is cybersecurity ERP and logistic software

00:05:54: Which makes perfect sense for the German economy.

00:05:56: when you think about how

00:05:57: so well

00:05:58: if you are an industrial powerhouse You don't need a new photo-sharing app?

00:06:01: You need better Logistics software to move your cars in chemicals

00:06:04: precisely it is B to be tech supporting The heavy Industrial base And the advisors over there are incredibly busy.

00:06:11: Siddharth Urdalp noted that Lincoln International actually ranked number one for sell side M&A advisory in the DACH region.

00:06:18: Right,

00:06:19: and for you listening who might not be in the advisory trenches every day, Sell Side Advisory essentially means they are the ones hired by the company being sold.

00:06:27: Their job is to find best buyer and drive up price

00:06:30: Correct.

00:06:31: And looking specifically at Switzerland there's an even more niche trend emerging.

00:06:36: Greg Grubley launching a Swiss M& A Succession Forum.

00:06:41: A forum just for corporate succession?

00:06:43: Yes,

00:06:43: think about the demographics there.

00:06:45: Switzerland has a massive number of family-owned SMEs Small and medium enterprises And the

00:06:51: founders are aging out.

00:06:52: The owners are retiring en masse... ...and handing over a family business is not like spitting off a corporate division.

00:06:58: Oh I'm sure it's much messier.

00:07:00: You have tax issues obviously But you also have emotional dynamics.

00:07:04: Legacy concerns Family

00:07:05: infighting

00:07:06: Exactly.

00:07:06: Yeah Grobley is creating space specifically to handle the complexities of that generational turnover.

00:07:13: You know, that emotional side-the human factor?

00:07:15: That is actually a perfect transition to our next point!

00:07:18: The soft stuff...

00:07:19: Right we talk about billions of dollars in logistics software but Jennifer J Fondervais shared some insights recently from David Lancefield's podcast about organizational grief.

00:07:29: I am so glad you brought this up.

00:07:31: Grief is not a word you typically see in an M&A Excel spreadsheet?

00:07:35: No, usually it's just synergies

00:07:38: Right.

00:07:38: But Fondervais' point that if you ignore the fact employees are mourning their old culture or identity You actively put deal value at risk.

00:07:47: You buy company for its top talent and then the talent walks out of door because they feel like lost home.

00:07:52: Exactly It isn't soft stuff.

00:07:55: Desvadgamma had similar stat.

00:07:57: He argued Ninety percent of deals fail not because of the financials, but because a poor communication and dialogue issues.

00:08:04: So it just comes down to talking to people?

00:08:06: It is this silent killer of integrations.

00:08:08: And Anirvan Sen took it a step further with this brilliant analogy.

00:08:12: He says it's not just as simple culture clash.

00:08:14: What does he call it an operating system mismatch?

00:08:17: oh I like that.

00:08:18: walk me through that OS mismatch idea.

00:08:21: Imagine an entrepreneurial startup.

00:08:23: their internal OS was built for speed risk-taking and autonomy.

00:08:27: Decision making is super fluid, right?

00:08:30: Then they get bought by a massive multinational corporate whose OS is built for compliance stability in strict hierarchy.

00:08:37: so it Is not that the two teams hate each other.

00:08:39: It's that one is running Linux And The Other is Running Windows.

00:08:42: Ninety Five

00:08:43: Exactly.

00:08:44: They fundamentally process work In different ways.

00:08:47: If you don't recognize That mismatch during the deal process, you will grind gears until the whole machine breaks.

00:08:54: You have to proactively write a patch...to make them work

00:08:56: together.".

00:08:57: That's

00:08:57: it!

00:08:58: And speaking of avoiding critical mistakes…Dirk Salmer had a real warning for founders looking to sell.

00:09:03: Stop picking advisors based solely on fees?

00:09:06: Yes.

00:09:07: It is classic penny-wise pound foolish mistake—you are selling your life's work.

00:09:12: Do really want broker who charges one percent

00:09:14: less?...

00:09:15: or the one who actually has the track record to close the deal at a twenty percent higher valuation.

00:09:19: Point taken, you pay for results!

00:09:22: All right let's move into this second cluster deals and portfolio moves.

00:09:25: This is where we see that strategic discipline playing out in real time.

00:09:29: And we have start with the mega-deal.

00:09:31: Alistair Matchett reported on Dan Aher acquiring Massimo

00:09:35: For nine point nine billion dollars.

00:09:38: That was massive check to write.

00:09:40: They paid forty percent premium

00:09:42: But that premium is the real story here.

00:09:44: Danaher is an absolute machine when it comes to M&A.

00:09:48: They do not overpay by accident.

00:09:50: So what does that premium tell us?

00:09:52: Paying forty percent over market tells you.

00:09:55: they see immense long-term strategic value in Mossimo's medical monitoring technology,

00:10:02: they are buying top tier quality and not looking for a bargain bin asset.

00:10:06: Exactly!

00:10:07: It is a defensive moat around their medical tech portfolio.

00:10:10: Okay, from MedTech over to FinTech Philip Chow broke down the Capital One acquisition of Brex for five point one-five billion dollars

00:10:18: The largest FinTech acquisition by US Bank

00:10:21: Right Now.

00:10:22: I know Brex.

00:10:23: they are the corporate card for startups

00:10:25: But Five

00:10:25: Billions really high For just a credit card company doesn't it?

00:10:28: It definitely would be if that is all They were buying.

00:10:31: but Chow points out this Is really about the technologization Of startup banking

00:10:35: Technologization.

00:10:36: Yes,

00:10:37: Brex isn't just a plastic card.

00:10:39: it is a comprehensive software platform that handles expenses travel Automated cash management.

00:10:45: so by buying brex capital one Isn't just acquiring a customer list?

00:10:50: No They are buying a modern B to be operating system.

00:10:53: So Capital One Is essentially trying To stop being Just A traditional Bank and Start Being A true FinTech Platform.

00:11:00: Exactly they Are Buying Their Way Into the Future of how Businesses Actually Manage their Money on a daily basis.

00:11:06: Let's pivot to infrastructure, but not roads and bridges!

00:11:09: We are talking about digital pipes...

00:11:11: The plumbing of the internet?

00:11:12: Right

00:11:12: Andrea Ward shared the Liberty Global & Telfonica deal.

00:11:17: They're acquiring substantial group for two billion pounds.

00:11:20: This is major UK play.

00:11:22: they're creating massive fiber platform directly challenge BT Openreach.

00:11:26: So it's pure infrastructure play

00:11:28: Absolutely In an AI driven world data have travel fast.

00:11:32: Whoever owns the fiber actual physical pipes has immense market power.

00:11:36: Speaking of growing industries and infrastructure, this next one is a bit.

00:11:59: But the Canadians have already been through this entire cycle.

00:12:02: Exactly,

00:12:03: companies like Kronos and Organogram.

00:12:05: they've seen this movie before.

00:12:07: They had the capital in operational scars from their own legalization years ago.

00:12:12: So we saw Krono's acquiring Canadalar In The Netherlands Right And Organgram is buying Sanity Group over Germany.

00:12:18: Yes, and Valdivinos' key insight Is that Canadian Capital now views European infrastructure as highly investable.

00:12:26: They aren't just dipping a toe in to test the waters.

00:12:28: No,

00:12:28: they are buying up hard distribution channels and production facilities!

00:12:32: They want to own an underlying European market before domestic European players can fully scale-up.

00:12:37: It is total land grab

00:12:38: A very strategic landcrab

00:12:41: from weed to influencers.

00:12:43: Let's look at the creator economy.

00:12:46: Chris Irwin discussed futures acquisition of Sheer Lux

00:12:50: The potential eighty million pound deal.

00:12:52: This is a legacy media company buying a digital brand.

00:12:56: Usually, historically anyway that's just to play for web traffic right?

00:12:58: Yeah You buy the site.

00:12:59: you slap your programmatic ads on it.

00:13:01: usually yes But Erwin says this is fundamentally different.

00:13:05: he calls it buying social engines.

00:13:08: Social

00:13:08: engines Sure

00:13:09: looks isn't Just A website with passive Traffic.

00:13:12: It Is a Brand With very deep influence and real community trust.

00:13:16: So legacy media is finally realizing that in twenty-twenty six, you cannot just buy cheap eyeballs anymore?

00:13:22: Exactly!

00:13:22: You have to buy engagement...you have the actual relationship with the audience.

00:13:26: That's such a key distinction for the listener to internalize.

00:13:29: Traffic is rented but Community is owned Well

00:13:32: said.

00:13:32: And Finally In this cluster We Have A German Deal That Sits Right At The Intersection Of Workforce & Tech.

00:13:38: Lane Gordon covered Multiverse acquiring Stackfuel.

00:13:41: This is honestly one of my favorite signals from these two weeks, so Multiverse does apprenticeships and StackFuel does data in AI training.

00:13:49: Gordon points out that buyers right now are actively chasing AI capability plus human execution

00:13:56: because it's not enough to just buy an AI software license.

00:13:59: Exactly!

00:14:00: You need a workforce who actually knows how to deploy it.

00:14:04: Multiverse bought StackFule to get the curriculum and market access instantly.

00:14:08: They are betting that the biggest bottleneck in the near future isn't AI technology itself.

00:14:14: It is people who know how to drive it,

00:14:15: which sets us up perfectly for our third and final theme of The Deep Dive—AI & Tech In Dealmaking!

00:14:22: We just talked about training on it but let's talk actually buying it.

00:14:26: AI is completely ubiquitous here.

00:14:28: Let start with AI as acquisition target.

00:14:30: Cybersecurity is exploding.

00:14:32: Gashan Youssef and Mike Previtt noted that January, twenty-twenty six was absolutely huge over thirty cyber deals in just one month.

00:14:39: And look closely at what they are buying.

00:14:41: CrowdStrike acquired SGNL for seven hundred forty million dollars.

00:14:45: Wow!

00:14:46: An Infoblox bought AXR.

00:14:48: The major focus across the board is hardening identity and cloud security.

00:14:51: Why

00:14:52: identity specifically though?

00:14:53: Because

00:14:54: traditional network perimeter completely gone.

00:14:56: You cannot just build a firewall around your corporate office anymore.

00:15:00: Because everyone is everywhere!

00:15:01: Exactly,

00:15:02: and in a world filled with deep fakes and advanced AI bots proving that you are actually YOU... ...is the hardest security problem to solve right now.

00:15:11: Companies are terrified of AI-powered social engineering

00:15:14: So they're buying companies that secure identity at their source.

00:15:18: That makes a lot of sense.

00:15:19: So companies are buying AI security to protect against AI attacks, but they're also using AI to physically execute the deals

00:15:27: themselves.".

00:15:28: This is the massive operational shift.

00:15:30: Brett Claffey asserts that if your M&A strategy does not include agentic AI you were already falling behind.

00:15:37: Let's pause on agentic

00:15:38: A.I.,

00:15:39: sounds like sci-fi.

00:15:40: It is the next step up from basic chat interfaces.

00:15:43: A Chatbot answers a question for you, an agent actually performs a task autonomously.

00:15:48: it plans and executes a workflow.

00:15:50: Oh wow!

00:15:51: Dave Fields from Deal Room notes that CFOs are using this right now to execute deals faster.

00:15:56: they're automating data digestion in document review.

00:15:59: So imagine AI doesn't just store your due diligence documents but reads them extracts revenue data flags inconsistencies and writes the memo.

00:16:11: It is doing work of a junior analyst at two in morning

00:16:14: Just much faster, without needing coffee break Exactly!

00:16:18: Gwen Pope from Tiger Team M&A highlighted this specifically for cross-workstream integration planning

00:16:24: Because integration usually where deals go to die it just takes too long to merge companies.

00:16:30: Right.

00:16:30: She's seeing teams use AI to generate detailed integration plans in minutes And these plans are anchored directly into specific value drivers.

00:16:39: So instead of a team of consultants taking three weeks to build out a massive gaunt chart, the AI gives you first draft in ten minutes.

00:16:46: Yes and an M&A speed is value if you integrate three months faster.

00:16:51: there's three month synergies that have already been banked.

00:16:54: There was one last piece of advice regarding tech from Alexander Ivanov.

00:16:59: it wasn't about using AI to read contracts but finding deals in the first place

00:17:04: Signal based targeting.

00:17:06: I love this concept because it is incredibly practical.

00:17:09: He's essentially saying, stop with the massive email blasts

00:17:12: Stop spamming five thousand CEOs asking if they want to sell their life work Exactly.

00:17:17: So what do you do instead?

00:17:19: You look for specific data signals.

00:17:20: They give great example.

00:17:22: Look for a fifty-eight year old business owner who just hired new CFO in market that actively consolidating.

00:17:29: Ah I see The owner approaching retirement age and they are bringing in a financial pro to clean up the books.

00:17:35: They're actively grooming company for sale.

00:17:38: that is not luck, it's clear signal.

00:17:40: It's pattern indicates high propensity to sell.

00:17:43: Ivanov argues using data to find those specific needles in haystack.

00:17:48: how you win in twenty-twenty six?

00:17:50: Not by just use louder megaphone.

00:17:52: It about being sniper not using shotgun.

00:17:55: Couldn't said better myself?

00:17:57: Before we wrap up, there's one thought I want to leave you with.

00:17:59: building on all this.

00:18:01: We talk about AI automating due diligence and finding targets but the next frontier is going be AI evaluating the cultural fit between two companies before the deal even signs.

00:18:11: imagine an agent analyzing internal communication styles to predict that operating system mismatch.

00:18:18: Anna Revensen talked about

00:18:19: That would a game changer for deal success rates.

00:18:22: Something to mull over.

00:18:24: So, pulling all of this together from the macro bullishness to specific deal mechanics.

00:18:29: What is the core takeaway for The Listener?

00:18:31: It goes back that first thought – strategic discipline!

00:18:35: The market is back…the money flowing whether it's into DACH logistics, Canadian cannabis or U.S.

00:18:41: cybersecurity.

00:18:42: But

00:18:42: the wild west days are over.

00:18:44: You need discipline...you need understand human factor so your deal doesn't implode in culture shock.

00:18:49: You need leverage agentic AI move faster than competition

00:18:53: and you have to look for those specific signals in

00:19:09: the

00:19:16: noise.